La simulation probabiliste a considéré une variabilité plausible des paramètres du modèle et a pris en compte les incertitudes. Un modèle numérique des eaux souterraines à l’échelle régionale a été développé pour évaluer de manière probabiliste les impacts potentiels sur les eaux souterraines dus au développement d’une ressource additionnelle de charbon dans un bassin sédimentaire profond sous-jacent au GBA. L’analyse prédictive des impacts potentiels sur les ressources en eau est importante pour l’analyse de risque des projets de développement de ressources minières. Le développement des ressources des bassins sédimentaires profonds implique souvent le risque d’impacter les ressources d’eaux souterraines. Les bassins géologiques en Australie, parmi lesquels le Grand Bassin hydrogéologique Artésien (GBA), contiennent d’importantes ressources en charbon et gaz de houille (Coal Seam Gas - CSG). While this study was specifically done for the Namoi region, similar outcomes could be expected in the broader GAB and other basins where equivalent hydrogeological conditions exist. Separation of surficial aquifers from deeper coal formations, as generally found in the GAB, limits the propagation of CSG-induced drawdown into the aquifers closer to the surface. In general, less water-table drawdown was produced near the CSG development site but small amounts of drawdown spread further from it. The results showed that the water-table drawdown from an individual coal mining development becomes insignificant (maximum difference in drawdown <0.2 m) beyond 5 km. The predictive simulations were undertaken using 2,618 model runs to obtain maximum head drawdown caused by CSG and coal mining developments. Predictive uncertainty analysis was undertaken using a rejection sampling method after screening the model runs using predefined objective functions to evaluate the performance of the model runs with respect to historical observations. The probabilistic simulation considered the plausible variability of the model parameters and accounted for uncertainties. A regional-scale numerical groundwater model was developed to probabilistically assess potential groundwater impacts due to additional coal resource development from a deep sedimentary basin underlying the GAB. Predictive analysis of potential impacts on water resources are important for the risk analysis of resource development projects. Resource development from deep sedimentary basins often involves the risk of impacting groundwater resources. The geological basins in Australia across which the hydrogeological Great Artesian Basin (GAB) exists, hold significant coal and coal seam gas (CSG) resources. Hydrogeology Journal volume 28, pages 193–218 ( 2020) Cite this article Modelagem de escala regional e análise de predição de incerteza de impactos cumulativos às aguas subterrâneas derivados de atividades de extração de gás e mineração de carvão Modelización a escala regional y análisis predictivo de la incertidumbre de los impactos acumulativos de las aguas subterráneas en los desarrollos de la minería del carbón y del gas de veta de carbón Modélisation à l’échelle régionale et analyse prédictive d’incertitude des impacts cumulatifs sur les eaux souterraines des développements miniers de gaz de houille et de charbon Regional-scale modelling and predictive uncertainty analysis of cumulative groundwater impacts from coal seam gas and coal mining developments
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